One of the foundations of the Transition Movement is the fact that as the world supply of oil peaked in the years 2005 – 2008 it will continue to decline with progressively high prices. Yet we are currently experiencing record reductions in the price of oil so what’s going on?
Well, enjoy it while you can. Conventional oil reduction did peak as predicted and has been declining by about 3.5 million barrels a day, so to maintain the global supply we would need the equivalent of a new Saudi Arabian supply every 3 years.
Most new oil is coming from unconventional sources e.g. fracking and deep water extraction reliant on highly expensive technology which made investment sense when a barrel was priced at $100. High prices encouraged this investment and a surge in production whilst at the same time demand has fallen due to the world economic recession. The big OPEC producer’s response has been to flood the market reducing the cost of oil substantially in their attempt to maintain market supply and to disincentive investment in the more expensive extraction technologies. Of late this appears to be working as producers stall or abandon new fields.
Inevitably prices will rise again (and perhaps encourage re- investment in the newer expensive extraction technology) but it is unlikely that we will see the new production keeping pace with the reduction in supply from conventional extraction. So we will see again supply reduction and rising prices.
The good news is that some producers are turning to renewable technology so why isn’t this problem and solution alongside energy saving at the top of the political parties election manifestos?
Why not come to our election hustings for the Tiverton and Honiton constituency to be held at Throgmorton Hall off Culme Way, Dunkeswell, Honiton, Devon, EX14 4JP 7pm on 21st April. Better still send a question to firstname.lastname@example.org tel 01404891154.
Other dates for your diary of Transition events
Seed swap Sunday hosted by the Stentwood Community Stentwood Farm Dunkeswell DEV EX14 4RW on Sunday 1st March from 11am to 5pm.
Seed swap in association with Blackdown Hills Gardening Club at the Saturday Market Churchinford and District Community Hall on Saturday 7th March 10am to 12am
Our next Transition Meeting will be being held in the Candlelight pub Bishopwood TA20 3RS Thursday 16th April start at 7.30pm.
If you fancy meeting others with a concern for local resilience to meet the challenges of climate change and energy depletion come along and join in or contact us via the website.
Jim Rogan Chair Blackdown Hills Transition Group